Saturday, March 1, 2014

Reds v. A's

In his book with Rob Neyer, "Baseball Dynasties" Eddie Epstein compares the two great teams of the early-to-mid seventies, the Cincinnati Reds and the Oakland A's, concluding that the A's were the better team. Comparing the 1971-1975 A's to the 1975-1976 Reds, he writes that five straight division titles and three straight world championships was a more impressive accomplishment than two straight world championships. It makes no sense to claim that the A's were better while arbitrarily limiting the Reds' "dynasty" to two years. Epstein seems to forget that the Reds also won pennants in 1970 and 1972. It would be much more fair to compare the 1972-1976 Reds to those A's teams. Then we have five years for each team and we add an additional pennant (1972) and two additional division titles (1972-1973) to the Reds' resume. Plus, we have the 1972 A's - Reds World Series to consider.

There are several ways to make such a comparison.

Won-Lost Record
The A's records break down like this:

1971     101-60  .627
1972       93-62  .600
1973       94-68  .580
1974       90-72  .556
1975       98-64  .605
TOT.    476-326 .594

Over their five years, the Reds had the following records:

1972       95-59  .617
1973       99-63  .611
1974       98-64  .605
1975     108-54  .667
1976     102-60  .630
TOT     502-300 .626

By this measure, the Reds were 26 games better than the A's during their run and finished above .600 for five straight years, quite an accomplishment.
Advantage: Reds

Postseason Appearances/Championships
The A's finished in first place in all five seasons during their run. The Reds finished second in 1974, behind a Dodger team that won 102 games. Both teams won three pennants, while the A's also won three world championships to the Reds' two.
Advantage: A's

Head-to-Head
No interleague play during this era, of course, so the only time the two teams met in a competition that meant anything was during the 1972 World Series. The A's won in seven games. It was an extremely close series, with six one-run games (the Reds won game 6 by a score of 8-1). Reggie Jackson, injured during the ALCS, did not play in the series. The surprise hero was Gene Tenace, who, at this point in his career, had never been anything more than an obscure sub. He hit .348 with 4 home runs. A's pitchers held Joe Morgan to a .125 average and Pete Rose to .214.
Advantage: A's

Players
One mark of a great team is great players and the A's and Reds were two of the most star-studded teams of the early seventies. Of course there is no objective definition of "great," though we might use Hall of Fame membership as a benchmark. In that category, the Reds had Joe Morgan, Johnny Bench, and Tony Perez as frontline players, as well as Pete Rose, a Hall of Fame-quality player who is kept out  for reasons besides his on-field performance. The A's had Reggie Jackson, Catfish Hunter, and Rollie Fingers. Both teams had outstanding talent behind their Hall-of-Famers: Dave Concepcion, George Foster, Ken Griffey for the Reds; Gene Tenace, Sal Bando, Bert Campaneris, Joe Rudi, Ken Holtzman, Vida Blue for the A's.

Another possible objective measure is MVP and Cy Young Award seasons. Reds players won the NL MVP award every year during their run except 1974: Johnny Bench in '72, Pete Rose in '73, and Joe Morgan in '75 and '76. A's players won two MVP awards: Vida Blue in 1971 and Reggie Jackson in 1973. No Red even came close to winning a Cy Young during their five years. Blue in 1971 (of course) and Catfish Hunter in 1974 won Cy Young Awards for the A's.

With the development of stats intended to measure a player's overall value, we can also use wins above replacement (WAR) as an objective measure of quality individuals seasons. Baseball-Reference.com states that, in their version of WAR, 5.0 or above represents an all-star quality season. Using that measure, we can make a list of such seasons for both teams during those years. Each team has 15 position player-seasons that rate at 5.0 or greater. The highest-rated season for the A's is Reggie Jackson's 1973, which rates at 7.8. The Reds have 8 individual seasons that match or exceed 7.8 WAR, including all five of Joe Morgan's seasons; Morgan's 1975, at 11.0 WAR is rated by Baseball-Reference as the 20th best season since 1901. However, the A's do have three pitcher-seasons that exceed 5.0 WAR, led by Vida Blue's incredible 1971 season at 9.0, while the Reds have none. So, in terms of great seasons, the Reds had better seasons and the A's had slightly more great seasons.
Advantage: Even

Dynasty Points
Bill James came up with a way of measuring dynasties, in terms of both quality and length, by awarding teams points for certain accomplishments (world championships, league championships, winning 100 games, etc.). By this method, the 1971-1975 A's earn 20 points. The Reds' dynasty, which James' method dates back to 1970, also earns 20 points. If we restrict the Reds' point total to the years from 1972 to 1976, the team earns 18 points.
Advantage: A's

There are many other ways to compare these teams, of course. We could compare them position-by-position, or use team statistics, such as runs scored or runs allowed to measure how dominant each team was in its league, but the law of diminishing returns would soon set in. My gut says the Reds were a better team. Their 1975-1976 teams probably had the greatest lineup, one through eight, in baseball history. The Reds were a good team from 1961 through 1981, with only a couple of mediocre seasons, but no truly bad ones. During that same period the A's lost over 100 games four times. The Reds reached higher heights and were good for more years, but if you compare their five best years, it's close, but the A's were the better team.

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